'청년'과 '북한'의 마주침 : 북한 지식 공론장에서의 미래성의 정치

한선영 연세대학교 대학원 2020 국내석사

대북 지식공유사업에 대한 연구 : 남북 산림협력을 중심으로

이운식 북한대학원대학교 2022 국내석사

The purpose of this study is to examine the theories and trends of knowledge sharing projects that have emerged as a new flow of international development cooperation since the 2000s, and to obtain implications necessary for future project promotion by analyzing the current status of knowledge sharing projects with a focus on the forest sector. In the 2000s, the knowledge sharing project began to spread as the importance of not only the input of material resources but also the use of non-material knowledge and technology was emphasized while reflecting on the existing development aid method centered on donor countries. The international community's knowledge sharing project with North Korea began with market economy education for North Korean officials and academics. Korean NGOs also started to promote knowledge sharing projects centered on technical support and policy consultation while promoting development cooperation projects in agriculture, health care, and forestry. However, all these knowledge sharing projects were halted after 2010 as inter-Korean relations deteriorated. After the advent of the Kim Jong-un regime, as North Korea established a 10-year forestry plan and carried out extensive forest restoration activities, expectations for inter-Korean forest cooperation also increased in South Korea. However, due to the strained inter-Korean relations and international sanctions against North Korea, there were few cases in which it actually led to a project. As inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation were suspended for a long time, NGOs promoted independent knowledge-sharing projects such as international conferences and education/training through international NGOs in third countries. Although it was not pursued with a sufficient understanding of the knowledge sharing project and a long-term goal, it was confirmed that the knowledge sharing project for capacity building was very useful in the changing condition of inter-Korean relations. This study analyzed the effectiveness, sustainability, governance and external influence of the knowledge sharing project with North Korea focusing on the field of forestry cooperation. Since the mid-2000s, knowledge sharing projects in the forestry sector and field-oriented technical support activities promoted by NGOs have greatly contributed to enhancing North Korea's nursery productivity and strengthening development capabilities in the forestry sector. It was confirmed that it had a great influence on the policy of scientificization, industrialization, and standardization of production. In addition, North Korea showed deep interest in South Korea's advanced nursery and tissue culture technology, forest fire management system, and use cases of RS/GIS spatial information at international conferences, which can be seen as reflecting the recent trend of North Korea emphasizing the importance of science and technology. Despite various effects such as strengthening North Korea's forestry development capabilities, there were few cases of independent knowledge sharing projects due to the lack of understanding of the knowledge sharing project by NGOs and the low acceptance of North Korea. In order to enhance the sustainability of the business, it is important to fully utilize resources and prepare a program with continuity and completeness by involving various actors. In addition, inter-Korean forest cooperation is a development cooperation project that requires expertise and large-scale financial resources, requiring close cooperation between the government, NGOs, and expert groups. The forest knowledge sharing project, like other North Korea projects, was greatly affected by the security environment surrounding North Korea. Nevertheless, the advantage of being able to actively utilize the cross-disciplinary nature of the knowledge sharing project for capacity development was also confirmed. It is necessary to prepare a knowledge sharing project in the forestry sector in a more sophisticated way by referring to past experiences and paying attention to the international community's trends in North Korea's development cooperation. 본 연구의 목적은 2000년대 이후 국제개발협력의 새로운 흐름으로 등장한 지식공유사업의 이론과 동향을 살펴보고, 산림분야를 중심으로 대북 지식공유사업의 현황을 분석, 평가하는데 있다. 지식공유사업은 2000년대 들어 공여국 중심의 기존 개발원조 방식을 반성하면서 물질적 자원의 투입뿐만 아니라 비물질적인 지식·기술 활용의 중요성이 강조되면서 확산되기 시작했다. 국제사회의 대북 지식공유사업은 북한 관료, 학자 대상의 시장경제 교육을 중심으로 시작되었고, 한국 민간단체들도 농업과 보건의료, 산림분야의 개발협력 사업을 추진하면서 기술지원과 정책자문 중심의 지식공유사업을 추진하기 시작했다. 그러나 이렇게 추진했던 지식공유사업은 2010년 이후 남북관계가 악화되면서 모두 중단되었다. 김정은 정권 등장 이후 북한이 산림조성 10개년 계획을 수립하고 대대적인 산림복구 활동을 전개하자 한국에서도 남북 산림협력에 대한 기대가 높아졌다. 그러나 경색된 남북관계와 국제사회의 대북 제재로 인해 실제 사업으로 이어진 경우는 거의 없었다. 남북 교류협력 중단이 장기화되자 민간단체들은 제3국에서 국제NGO 등을 매개로 국제회의, 워크샵, 교육·연수 등 독립된 방식의 지식공유사업을 추진했다. 지식공유사업에 대한 충분한 이해와 장기적 목표를 갖고 추진한 것은 아니었지만, 역량강화를 위한 지식공유사업이 변화된 남북관계 상황에서 매우 유용한 사업임이 확인되었다. 본 연구에서는 산림협력 분야를 중심으로 대북 지식공유사업의 효과성과 지속가능성, 거버넌스, 그리고 지식공유사업에 미치는 외부의 영향을 분석하였다. 2000년대 중반 이후 민간단체가 추진한 현장중심의 기술지원 활동과 지식공유사업은 북한의 양묘생산성 제고와 산림분야의 개발역량 강화에 크게 기여했으며, 북한이 양묘분야의 핵심과제로 내세우고 있는 묘목생산의 과학화, 공업화, 집약화 정책에 큰 영향을 미친 것으로 확인되었다. 또한 북한은 국제회의에서 남한의 선진적인 양묘와 조직배양 기술, 산불관리시스템과 RS/GIS 공간정보 활용 사례 등에 깊은 관심을 보였는데 이는 과학기술의 중요성을 강조하고 있는 북한 내부의 상황을 반영한 것이었다. 산림분야에서의 북한 개발역량 강화 등 다양한 효과에도 불구하고 지식공유사업에 대한 민간단체들의 이해 부족과 북한의 낮은 수용성 등으로 인해 독립된 방식으로 지식공유사업이 시행된 사례는 많지 않았다. 사업의 지속가능성을 높이기 위해서는 자원을 충분히 활용하고, 다양한 행위자들을 참여시켜 연속성과 완성도를 갖춘 프로그램을 준비하는 것이 중요했다. 또한, 남북 산림협력은 전문성과 대규모 재원이 소요되는 개발협력 사업으로 정부와 민간단체, 전문가 그룹 간 긴밀한 협력이 필요하며, 남북 간 직접협력이 어려운 상황에서는 국제NGO 및 해외동포 단체의 역할이 더욱 높아진 것이 확인되었다. 산림분야 지식공유사업도 다른 대북사업과 마찬가지로 북한을 둘러싼 안보환경으로부터 크게 영향을 받았다. 그럼에도 역량발전을 위한 지식공유사업의 범분야성을 적극 활용할 수 있다는 장점도 확인되었다. 과거의 경험을 참고하고 국제사회의 북한 개발협력 동향에 관심을 기울이면서 보다 정교한 방식으로 산림분야 지식공유사업을 준비할 필요가 있다.

TPR과 TPB의 통합프레임워크를 활용한 북한관광의 위험지각에 따른 행동의도 연구 : 북한관광 중요성 인식의 조절효과를 중심으로

남은경 경희대학교 대학원 2020 국내박사

This paper aims to predict the perception of tourism in North Korea including the nation’s perception of risk of tourism in North Korea in the process of having improved inter-Korean relations such as the Inter-Korean Summit and increased inter-Korean exchange, and studied the behavior intention of traveling in North Korea, in preparation for the time when it becomes possible to travel around North Korea. In fact, studies on tourism in North Korea is very limited. It is because the data on the North Korean economy do not include tourism status nor does it provide reliable official data. Studies on the field of tourism in North Korea have been very sporadic. And such trend continued after the tourist attractions in North Korea including Mt. Kumgang and Kaesong were completely closed, and researchers have begun to study in recent 1-2 years. Although inter-Korean tourism is a difficult task to fulfill, due to increasing uncertainties and North Korea’s nuclear threat, discussions on the potential of inter-Korean tourism will be a meaningful study in the long term. In addition, tourism in North Korea can contribute not only to the political and socio-economic aspects, but also to lay the foundation for inter-Korean exchange and cooperation, can be an opportunity to alleviate cultural and mental dissatisfaction of the two Koreas depend by long separation. Since tourists do not experience the exact risk perception and safety conditions before traveling to a new destination, perception of risk plays an important role in choosing destinations for traveling. In particular, North Korea is a special region that is exposed to historical and political risk factors with South Korea, so perception of risk will play an important role in choosing North Korea as a travel destination. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to empirically verify how the risk perception of potential tourists affects their decision on traveling to North Korea in the future, and to apply the TPB(Theory of Planned Behavior) to empirically examine the structural relationship between perceived risk factors and attitudes toward behavior subjective norms, perceived behavioral control and behavioral intentions. Furthermore, we will add prior knowledge factors for tourism in North Korea to identify the relationship between attitudes and behavioral intentions. We will further examine whether there are differences among groups in behavioral intentions depending on the degree of awareness of importance of tourism in North Korea in perceptional terms of tourism. In order to achieve the goal of this study, we used the quota sampling method to select samples from 17 metropolitan governments. In order to verify the hypothesis presented in this study, we verified the structural equation between risk perception on tourism in North Korea, prior knowledge and TPB factors, and conducted the multi-group analysis of the structural model to identify the moderating effects among groups depending on the degree of awareness of the importance of tourism in North Korea. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the perceived risk of tourism in North Korea had a negative(-) effect, and prior knowledge and subjective norms had a positive(+) effect on attitude. Secondly, the perceived risk of tourism in North Korea had a negative(-) effect on behavioral intention, and prior knowledge had a positive(+) effect. Thirdly, the attitude, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control had positive(+) effects on behavioral intention in the relationship between constructive concepts in the theory of planned behavior. Fourth, the perceived risk of tourism in North Korea had a direct effect on attitude and an indirect effect on behavioral intentions, and it was shown to have a greater direct impact on attitudes than the indirect effects of behavioral intentions through attitudes. Prior knowledge was found to have both direct and indirect effects on attitudes and behavioral intentions. Fifth, it was found that there were moderating effects between prior knowledge and attitudes, perceived risk and behavioral intentions, prior knowledge and behavioral intentions, and subjective norms and behavioral intentions, depending on the degree of awareness of the importance of tourism in North Korea. And other moderating effects were dismissed. It is significant that this study has established a risk perception model of tourism in North Korea based on previous studies and investigated the perception of risk of tourism in North Korea from the public. Also, the perceived risk factors and the prior knowledge factors of tourism in North Korea empirically verified the relationship between the constructive theory of planned behavior, and this study empirically proved that the difference in the degree of awareness of importance in tourism in North Korea has a moderating effect in each relation, suggesting the possibility that it can be a meaningful strategy for forming the behavioral intentions of traveling to North Korea. In conclusion, this study provides strategic implications that formation of perceived risks and prior knowledge of tourism in North Korea gives a significant effect on intention of traveling to an unfamiliar tourist destination, and that it is necessary to actively implement campaigns of improving tourism awareness in North Korea, build information systems related to North Korea and tourism, develop joint public-private tourism products, and establish systematic guidelines.

김정은 시대 기술혁신체제 변화 연구 - ‘전민과학기술인재화’를 중심으로 -

이형진 북한대학원대학교 2022 국내석사

이 연구는 지식경제 시대 북한의 과학기술혁신체제 변화를 ‘전민과학기술인재화’가 내포하는 의미를 통해 규명하는 것이다. 그동안 북한은 ‘과학기술중시사상’을 통해 김정일 시대부터 과학기술을 육성하고 과학기술을 통한 경제발전을 추구해 왔다. 과학기술을 중요시 하는 현상은 산업화가 성숙한 사회에서는 보편적으로 관찰되는 현상이기에 북한의 정책적 의지를 확인하는 정도의 의미로 받아들여졌지만 ‘전민과학기술인재화’가 내포하는 의미는 남다르다. 전체 인민을 대상으로 과학기술인재로 육성하겠다는 선언은 1960년대 중소분쟁이 발생하고 베트남전쟁이 발발하는 등 대외적 위기상황에서 체제를 보위하고자 ‘4대 군사노선’을 채택하고 ‘전민의 무장화’를 표방했던 시점과 유사성을 갖는다. 북한은 고난의 행군 시대를 극복하고 무너진 체제를 다시 일으키며 사회주의 강국으로 도약하기 위해 ‘지식경제’를 새로운 도약을 위한 기회로 설정하였다. 이를 위해 사회시스템의 획기적인 변화와 과학기술을 정책적 최우선 순위로 설정하는 등 자구책을 강구해왔다. 따라서 전민의 과학기술인재화는 인간의 지력, 인재가 최고의 자원이 되는 지식경제 시대, 정보산업 시대로의 전환을 이루려 하는 것이다. 그동안 자본주의 시장경제사회의 기술혁신 이론에서는 슘페터가 주장한 ‘창조적 기업가’와 ‘기업가정신(entrepreneurship)’을 통한 혁신의 창출을 강조해 왔다. 반면 사회주의 계획경제사회인 북한에서는 근로인민대중이 사회의 주인임을 표방하고 근로인민대중의 혁신역량을 통해 기술혁신을 추진하고 있다. 이처럼 전민과학기술인재화는 북한이라는 체제의 특성에서 가능한 혁신정책으로 평가 할 수 있다. 이 연구에서는 북한이 사회주의 국가라는 일반성과 주체와 자주적 입장의 견지라는 특수성, 그리고 지식경제와 새 세기 산업혁명의 담론 속에서 어떻게 기술혁신체제를 변화시켜왔는지 ‘전민과학기술인재화’라는 정책을 통해 변화의 동인과 방향을 살펴본다. 이와 함께 전민과학기술인재화라는 대중적 기술혁신운동을 통해 김정은 시대 북한 과학기술혁신체제의 특징을 알아보고 산업발전 전략과 북한의 과학기술의 발전 방향을 조망해 본다. This study examines the changes in North Korea’s Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) system to move towards the knowledge economy through the lens of the policy agenda ‘Nurturing the people as scientific and technological talents.’ North Korea has invested in science and technology to achieve national economic growth. The national agenda ‘Ideology of focusing on science and technology’ has shown North Korea’s political willingness to put a national priority on scientific and technological development. In this context, the policy agenda to nurture the people as scientific and technological talents highlights the rationales behind the North Korea’s STI system and its development. The declaration of the policy was an effort to secure the national political and economic system in the face of internal crises such as the Arduous March and the failure of economic policies. While rebuilding the national system, North Korea set ‘Knowledge Economy’ as a new paradigm to leap forward to a ‘Great socialist country.’ At the heart of these endeavors lied science and technology policies as the national priority. The policy agenda represents North Korea’s socialist ideology and national identity as an independent state. The policy rationale begins by admitting the limitation of the economic growth model based on labor and capital. Instead, it emphasizes information and human intellectual power as the primary force driving a knowledge economy. It also stands opposite the Schumpeterian model emphasizing the role of entrepreneurship to create innovation: It presents the society of the people, and it believes in the people’s overall innovation capacity for bringing scientific and technological development. This paper investigates how North Korea has shifted its STI system towards the knowledge economy and what roles the policy agenda has played in it. The political and economic conditions shaped by socialism and the pursuit of an independent state are considered to interpret the policy directions and meanings. Based on the analysis, the paper provides a better understanding of North Korea’s STI system and suggests future strategies for its national STI development.