The American Strategy toward Central Asia : Challenges and Policy Options in Kazakhstan

마선경 숙명여자대학교 국제관계대학원 2006 국내석사

In recent days, new changes and movements have actively emerged in Central Asia. Many countries, including U.S.A, are keeping their eyes on Central Asia and Caspian Sea area, and, in a strategic term, countries in both regions are increasingly important. Why the region became so important can be explained that we can predict future of international community through those countries' past and present and the nation that dominates this area can be the one that also dominates the world. In this respect, the rise of Kazakhstan, one of the Central Asian countries, has become internationally significant. It is in accord with the global policy of the U.S., the world's only superpower. At present, U.S. is using the political, economical and military instruments according to holding hegemony that is the global policy of the U.S. and spreading international influence in each part. In politics, U.S. makes a liberal democracy strongly and spreads the liberal democracy in the world to expand the U.S. sphere of influence. In economy, U.S. diffuses the international order which is opened economically and penetrates many country's economy with globalization of neoliberalism. It means that U.S. wants to make a profit through expansion of U.S. market and take hegemony of economy through economic penetration. Also, U.S. is proceeding the policy that the development and growth of world economy is under U.S. control by using a variety of nonmilitary or military instrument for oil security and take away restriction from country which supply oil. Despite a number of great powers declare themselves against the hegemony policy, it is impossible to do confrontation directly to the U.S. because America is a superpower at present. Therefore, great powers won't touch the action of U.S. if they can gain profit by U.S., but they will take sanction against U.S. through association of great powers when they feel threat of existence. The global policy of U.S. is stimulated by Central Asia. The reason is that Central Asia is of great geopolitical value. For example, the Kazakhtan, one among Central Asia countries, has a ethnic diversity by policy of Soviet Union, the position bordering on several countries and link between the Europe and Asia. Also, the area is the storehouse of energy having oil and natural resources, an area where is caused international crime like drug and terror and the large potential market. It means that the area has the all political, economical and military condition for the global policy of U.S., and the holding hegemony of U.S. in this area will be great power for hegemony of U.S. in the world. The dynamics of international politics about the interests of many countries in Central Asia is as follows. China makes an exchange with countries of Central Asia with interest about ethnic policy, stability of boundary, oil security and railroad linking with Europe according to bordering on several countries and holds U.S. in check through Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Russia wants to make economic and military association through collective security system of CIS(Commonwealth of Independent states) in Central Asia and have stable security and initiative of oil and natural gas with the relation. Also, Japan has good relations with countries of Central Asia through the construction related to oil. It's a policy for diversity of area supplying oil. Through the policy, Japan can prevent political restriction by the country supplying oil. Europe, also, is proceeding economic exchange actively by using advantage that Europe adjoins Central Asia, and looks forward to economic exchange and railroad linking Europe and Asia. Interestingly, the U.S. is paying attention to Kazakhstan to influence the Asia and keep its hegemony by exploiting the country as a connector between the West and Asia, and to address a potential lack and exhaustion of energy by its sufficient underground resources like the each country's strategy. Besides this, Kazakhstan can be helpful for the U.S. to control the Central Asia, which is possible to become a base of terrorists and gain economic benefits through trades. Many countries compete for their interests due to the Central Asia's geological, economic, and social environments, and, especially, the competition between the U.S. and Russia is noticeable. To prevent Kazakhstan from a conflict caused by super-states, the nation should prepare its legal and structural alternatives and take an important role to alleviate the concerns about future energy exhaustion. It may also advance making the world smaller by its geological advantage connecting the West and the Asia. To achieve this, it should help keep the world peace by stabilizing its political, economic, and social matters domestically.

The Changing Identity of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization : Central Asian Regional Body or Arena of New Great Game?

황인수 부산대학교 대학원 2023 국내석사

The purpose of this Study is to understand the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s identity, which had a pivotal role in Central Asia throughout the rapid change of Central Asia from 2011 to 2022. The SCO became the pivotal organization in Central Asia after its establishment in 2001. From 2013 to 2022, Central Asia become connected with several events like ‘The rise of China’, ‘The withdraw of US troops from Afghanistan’, ‘Russia’s Crimea annexation and Russia-Ukraine war‘ directly or indirectly. The SCO, which had the most influence in Central Asia, increased the importance of not only the member states, such as China and Russia but also the overall importance of Central Asia. The change of situations from 2013 affected SCO’s identity. From 2013, There had been lack of studies done about SCO’s identity even though there has been rapid change in Central Asia. To analysis the SCO’s identity, the researcher reviewed the change of situations in the post cold war periods. This research looks back upon the establishment of ‘the Shanghai Five’, the US’s presence and intrusion through the Great War on Terror, the establishment of the SCO, and the SCO’s reactions towards the US presence. Based on this, this research mainly analyzes the SCO’s identity under two main points of view about Central Asia, Regionalism and the New Great Game. The SCO increased its cooperation and co-response as the main Regional body in Central Asia. However, the SCO was considered as a measure of Russo-China cooperation. Because of the international level of conflict between the US and Russo-China, the SCO’s importance keeps growing. This study gives the understanding of the SCO’s identity under a complex order, and it also gives clues to implicate the New Great Game and Central Asian Regionalism. 본 논문은 2011년 이후 2022년까지 중앙아시아 지역에서 급격한 변화를 통해 지역에서 핵심적인 역할을 하고 있는 상하이협력기구의 정체성 변화를 확인하는데 그 목적이 있다. 2001년 설립 이후 SCO는 중앙아시아에서 중추적인 역할을 하는 지역기구로 지속적으로 부상했다. 2013년 이후 2022년까지 중앙아시아는 중국의 부상, 미국의 아프가니스탄 철군, 러시아의 크림반도 점령과 우크라이나 전쟁과 같은 거대한 변화들에 직간접적인 배경이 되었다. 이러한 변화들은 중앙아시아에서 가장 큰 영향력을 가지고 있는 SCO의 중요성을 지속해서 상승해 왔으며 최근 10년 동안 이와 같은 중앙아시아의 변화는 SCO의 정체성을 변화시키고 있다. 2013년 이후 상황의 급격한 변화에도 상하이협력기구의 정체성에 대한 연구는 부족한 상황이다. 이러한 SCO의 정체성을 분석하기 위해 탈냉전 시기 이후 중앙아시아에서 일어난 역사적인 흐름을 재확인한다. 1990년대 중국과 러시아를 중심으로 생겨난 ‘상하이 5국’ 체제의 형성, 2000년대 미국의 ‘테러와의 전쟁’에 의한 등장과 개입, SCO의 설립과 미국의 개입에 대한 반응을 확인할 것이다. 이를 기반으로 하여 본 연구는 상하이협력기구의 정체성을 중앙아시아를 바라보는 두 가지 관점을 사용하여 분석한다. 지역주의와 뉴 그레이트 게임이 관점이 그것이다. 상하이협력기구는 중앙아시아의 대표적 지역협력체로 상호 협력과 초국가적인 공동대응을 지속하고 있다. 그러나 동시에 상하이 협력기구는 중-러의 협력을 위한 기재로 인식되기도 한다. 두 관점 모두에서 상하이 협력기구의 중요성을 상승하고 있다. 상하이협력기구가 가진 정체성은 국제적인 수준과 지역적인 수준의 복합적인 질서가 만들어 내고 있다. 변화하는 상하이협력기구의 정체성에 대한 연구는 이러한 복합질서 가운데 상하이협력기구의 복합적인 정체성에 대한 이해의 확대와 함께 중앙아시아 뉴 그레이트 게임의 변화와 중앙아시아 지역주의의 방향성에 대한 이해를 확장하도록 할 것이다.

EMERGING RIVALRY BETWEEN GREAT POWERS IN CENTRAL ASIA : The Great Game 3.0: Focusing on the Rise of China

제이훈옵 아흐메트 건국대학교 대학원 2019 국내석사

In this study, China’s growing influence in Central Asia was analyzed in comparison with the engagement strategies deployed by other great powers (Russia, US and EU) in Central Asia. Central Asia was accepted as “Heartland” area of Eurasia because of its strategic location at the core of the continent which makes it vital in the integration of the Eurasian continent. Thus, throughout history, the region witnessed intense geopolitical rivalries between major powers, with the ultimate goal being domination, influence and hegemony over the region. Geopolitical vacuum in the region emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the discovery of the huge oil and gas reserves in the region elevated it its importance in the eyes of the great powers. Therefore, the region attracted the interests of the major actors once again and became the stage of fierce competition. Currently, from an economic point of view, China, Russia, US and EU initiated their own economic integration policies in order to coordinate their engagement policies with the region and to gain access to vast energy reserves. However, on the geopolitical front, the rivalry in Central Asia is closely associated with the rivalry over the future of the Eurasian integration as Central Asia is a determining element in the integration process of the entire continent. At the moment, China is a leading player of this emerging rivalry with its integrated and comprehensive engagement policies. With the latest developments, Central Asia, located in the periphery of China, has been dragged into China’s orbit of influence more than ever, and this development brought upgraded version of the classic “Great Game”: Great Game 3.0. 본 연구에서는, 중앙아시아에 강대국들(러시아, 미국, EU)의 경제적, 정치적 포용전략들을 비교하여, 중앙아시아에서의 중국의 영향력증대를 분석했다. 중앙아시아는 유라시아 핵심에서 전략적 위치를 갖고 있기 때문에 유라시아 통합 과정에서 매우 중요한 의미가 있으며 유라시아의 "하트랜드" 지역으로 언급되어왔다. 따라서 역사적으로 중앙아시아는 지역에 대한 지배, 영향력, 패권 같은 목표를 가지고 있는 주요 강대국들 간의 치열한 지리학적 경쟁을 겪어왔다. 소비에트 연방의 붕괴 이후 이 지역에서 지리학적인 공백이 생기며 그와 동시에 거대한 매장량의 석유와 천연가스의 발견으로 지역의 중요성이 더욱 강하졌고 강대국의 눈에 띄게 되었다. 그래서 이 지역은 다시 한 번 주연 배우들의 관심을 끌며 경쟁의 무대가 되었다. 경제적 관점에서 살펴보면, 현재 중국, 러시아, 미국, EU는 방대한 에너지 비축량을 얻고 지역에 영향력을 확대하기 위해 그들 자신의 경제 통합 정책을 개발하고 있다. 그러나 지정학적 측면에서 보면, 이런 경제적인 통합 정책들의 에너지보다 더 깊은 의미가 있다. 중앙아시아가 전체 대륙의 통합 과정에서 가장 결정적인 요소이기 때문에 이 지역에서 이러난 경쟁은 유라시아의 운명, 즉 유라시아의 통합에 대한 경쟁과 밀접한 관계가 있다. 현재 유라시아는 중국의 통합적인 포용정책 “일대일로” (一帶一路)로 새로운 경쟁의 무대가 되고 있다. 그런 입장에서 중국 주변 위치한 중앙아시아는 그 어느 때보다 중국의 세력 궤도에 끌려 들어갔고 유라시아도 종종 통합 되고 있다.

Geopoetics and Geopolitics: Landscape, Empire, and the Literary Imagination in the Great Game

Laskin, Emily A University of California, Berkeley ProQuest Disser 2021 해외박사(DDOD)

Geopoetics and Geopolitics: Landscape, Empire, and the Literary Imagination in the Great Game, is a study of the imaginative literature which arose from Russia and Britain's nineteenth-century contest for influence in Central Asia-a period which became popularly known in the Anglophone world as the Great Game. The dissertation offers a literary historiography of Central Asia during this time, tracking the region's shifting meanings in Russia and England alongside evolving local responses to new imperial interests. I argue that the resulting literary archive worked in service of imperial strategic interests while also maintaining an autonomous aesthetic function: it in fact gave rise to an imaginative space independent of, or even in contradistinction to, the trappings of geopolitical power.Geopoetics and Geopolitics interrogates the Russian and English texts about Central Asia which purported to discover, but in fact helped to produce, the region. In doing so, it reveals how imperial ideologies "placed" Central Asia in a global system: an insistence on the region's remoteness and peripherality paralleled its instrumental function as a buffer between empires. I furthermore historicize the appearance of a peripheral, interimperial buffer zone in the literature of the Great Game, arguing that at the moment when the entire globe had been fully mapped and accounted for by a system of imperial governance, the notion of a free space beyond empire's bounds became an increasingly important aspect of the imaginative literature produced by each of the cultures invested in Great-Game era Central Asia. The multilingual, multigeneric literary construction of Central Asia's emptiness, and the multivalent significances of that emptiness, constitute the region's geopoetics.The first chapter of the dissertation "The Great Game Travelogue: Fred Burnaby's A Ride to Khiva and Colonel Grodekov's Across Afghanistan" examines Russian and British travelers to the buffer zone. This chapter is a case study of the relationship between Central Asia's literary function and its role in an emerging global political order-I show how European travelers learned to see the region's flat, arid landscapes as a tabula rasa, allowing them to naturalize the "emptiness" required of a geopolitical buffer zone to the physical territory of Central Asia. This chapter establishes the relationship between political ideology, literary form, and landscape which the final two chapters examine in detail in relation to two of the best-known Great Game texts.These remaining two chapters form a pair, focused on Great Game novels. In Chapter Two, "Steppe Realism: Nikolai Karazin's Dvunogii volk (The Two-Legged Wolf)" I discuss a Russian novel, widely read in the late nineteenth century, which fictionalizes the Russian conquest and subsequent colonial settlement of Central Asia. In this chapter I argue that Karazin produces an "empty" and infinitely malleable Central Asian landscape meant to symbolize the new social mobility acquired by Russia's popular classes after the abolition of serfdom, and a new Russian Empire in which every social class could feel ownership. The third and final chapter, "Cartographic Idealism: Central Asia in Kipling's Kim," analyzes Rudyard Kipling's quintessential Great Game novel. Here I read Kim as an exemplar of Central Asia's role in the British cultural imagination. At once a Bildungsroman and a picaresque novel, Kim produces a space which is both central and peripheral, charted and unknowable.pace which is both central and peripheral, charted and unknowable. I conclude the dissertation by arguing that this impossible space sustained a fantasy regarding Central Asia which persists to this day, of a space that resists assimilation even as the central and peripheral territories of the world become ever more tightly knit. The dissertation ultimately assembles and analyzes a corpus of Great Game literature which, when read in comparative perspective, reveals the Great Game to be less a series of political events than a literary and discursive reaction to those events-a multigeneric, multilingual attempt to account for a newly interconnected world, and the loss of autonomy which European imperialism's expansion entailed.

중앙아시아에 대한 대한민국의 무역정책에 관한 연구

압둘라예브바이람 전북대학교 일반대학원 2022 국내석사

Central Asia has been a crucial point in the economic, cultural, political and religious exchange between East and West for centuries. It still plays a vital role in interactions between Europe and Asian countries including the Republic of Korea. The collapse of Soviet Union created an opportunity for the ROK to find new trade partners and sources of energy to meet its energy needs. Since then, South Korea has taken significant steps to strengthen and develop its relations with Central Asian countries. Several bilateral agreements and contracts have been made to help newborn independent states to build up their economies and reduce their dependency on limited powers. Moreover, South Korean government established various funds and organizations exclusively for the advancement of the region’s cultural, medical, IT and other areas. Special initiatives were launched by the administration of each Korean president to deepen the bilateral relations with the region. This research attempts to analyze the key factors of trade policy of the ROK in Central Asian states as a way of developing the commercial cooperation between the states and explore the problems and opportunities for further partnership. In this respect, the objective of this research is to investigate the previous and current condition of the partnership and significance of special initiatives of the ROK toward Central Asia.  중앙아시아는 수 세기 동안 동서양의 경제적, 문화적, 정치적, 종교적 교류의 중요한 지점이었다. 중앙아시아는 여전히 유럽과 대한민국을 포함한 아시아 국가들 사이에 중요한 역할을 하고 있다. 소련의 붕괴는 대한민국이 에너지 수요를 충족시킬 새로운 무역 파트너와 에너지원을 찾을 수 있는 기회를 만들었다. 그 이후로, 대한민국은 중앙아시아 국가들과의 관계를 강화하고 발전시키기 위해 중요한 조치를 취해왔다. 신생 독립국가들이 경제를 발전시키고 제한된 권력에 대한 의존도를 줄이도록 돕기 위해 몇몇 양자간 합의와 계약이 이루어졌다. 또한, 한국 정부는 지역의 문화, 의료, IT 및 기타 분야의 발전을 위해 다양한 기금과 단체를 설립하였다. 각 한국 대통령의 행정부는 그 지역과의 양자 관계를 심화시키기 위해 특별한 계획들을 시작했다. 본 연구는 국가 간 상업협력을 발전시키기 위한 방안으로서 중앙아시아 국가들에서 한국의 무역정책의 주요 요소들을 분석하고 추가적인 협력의 문제점과 기회를 모색하고자 한다. 이러한 점에서 본 연구의 목적은 중앙아시아에 대한 한국의 파트너십의 이전 및 현재 상황과 그 의의를 조사하는 데 있다.

중앙아시아에 진출한 한국기업 및 외국기업 사례분석 : 우즈베키스탄과 카자흐스탄을 중심으로

사타로브저이르 전북대학교 일반대학원 2014 국내석사

ABSTRACT Central Asia has vital plentiful natural resources and energy, based on the high economic growth rate, the market size is expanding rapidly and emerging very high as a potential for economic cooperation. Value of Central Asia has been increased in this way. All countries of the world are stretching forward into the Central Asia. The economic level of the Central Asian countries depends on the degree of economic liberalization, domestic political situation, natural resources, and the transition to a market economy, although it differs from country to country. Especially, four major countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan have abundant amount of oil and also maintain plentiful natural resources as reserves. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, among others, have rich oil, gas, mineral resources, that serve as a huge potential for very high economic growth, that makes them very attractive for international investments flowing from the outside. Uzbekistan has very much raw resources and abundant workforce. Kazakhstan has a growing economy and it's political situation is stabilizing, that open the window of opportunity for safe investment in these countries. In addition, rapid economic growth, aggressive investment strategies of foreign companies in the resource and energy sector, the movement of an active regional economic cooperation, for the realization of medium-and long-term economic development strategies to attract foreign investment, these countries have a high investment attractiveness. In addition, although the market size of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan countries pertains to the small one, but in the future, the growth potential of these countries is expected to be very high. South Korea's private enterprises pushed into the Central Asia, focused on Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan very actively from the early days. We can see three steps of advance in the Central Asia of South Korea. The first step is, from 1991 until the early 2000's, South Korea's enterprises improved good image in the Central Asia by selling a automobile, electronics and building infrastructure, such as pressing plants. In the second step, a lot of investment has been made in the energy sector and the construction sector from 2001 until 2008. However, due to the global financial crisis, companies ran into difficulties. In comparison of the investment history, South Korea was relatively weaker on its expansion, than aggressive advancing of Russia, Europe, China, and Japan in the Central Asia. As a result, If Korean government and companies advance with a clear understanding of strengths and weaknesses, advantages and disadvantages of these countries, the further advance of Korean companies in the this area can be very promising. Key Words: Central Asia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Entered Korean and Foreign Companies.

Geostrategic changes in Central Asia: Role of Kyrgyzstan in omni-esmeshment strategy

캐낸바에바 아이페리 단국대학교 대학원 2024 국내석사

Geostrategic changes in Central Asia: Role of Kyrgyzstan in omni-enmeshment strategy Department of Political Science and International Relations Graduate School Dankook University Aiperi KENENBAEVA1 Advisor: Professor. HanSeung CHO This paper assesses the geostrategic shift in Central Asia and challenges faced by the region's independent states. As major powers vie for influence in the region, smaller states like Kyrgyzstan find themselves caught in the midst of shifting geopolitical dynamics. Kyrgyzstan's position between Russia, China, and other regional powers presents both opportunities and challenges. Drawing insights from ASEAN's successes, the study advocates for a comparable collaborative framework for Central Asia, delineating the imperative for shared economic, political, security, and cultural cooperation to foster a more stable, unified region. Additionally, the study explores the potential role of small states, highlighting Kyrgyzstan's strategic positioning, and omni-enmeshment strategy, drawing insights from Southeast Asian nations. Leveraging its small state status, Kyrgyzstan could serve as a mediator, promoting inclusive regional cooperation. Ultimately, the integration of Central Asian states is posited as a crucial step towards stabilizing the region, preserving their sovereignty, and facilitating developmental opportunities in the modern world. Key words: small states, Central Asia, Major powers, omni enmeshment, ASEAN, Kyrgyzstan, foreign policy, regional integration and cooperation

Is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization a threat to the United States?

AzimovJakhongir 세종대학교 공공정책대학원 2017 국내석사

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has played an important role as a regional organization in Central Asia since its establishment in 2001. Initially, the SCO focused on two primary objectives, regional security and energy cooperation between member states. However, over the years, the role of the SCO has expanded incrementally, and this trend is expected to accelerate with the addition of India and Pakistan, who were approved as the 7th and 8th full members of the SCO in 2016. While some Western analysts believe the SCO is inevitably a threat to American interests in Central Asia, this thesis will make the case that, while some American interests may conflict with SCO interests, others do not, and consequently, the overall impact of the SCO will remain positive for its members, the United States and the world. Having said that, it is important to identify what constitute American interests in Central Asia. Perhaps the most important American economic interest in Central Asia is energy. The Central Asia region includes many energy exporting countries, including SCO members Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The SCO also contains two superpowers – Russia and China. Russia is a major energy producer and Russian companies are major competitors to American companies in the energy business. China, on the other hand, is the world’s largest energy importer. As such, both Russia and China have an interest in limiting the role and influence of the United States in the field of energy in this region. Another major interest of the United States in Central Asia is regional security and terrorism, especially as it relates to Afghanistan. As a result of the September 11 attacks in 2001, the United States has been heavily involved in military and security issues in this region, especially in Afghanistan. While there remain American troops in Afghanistan, President Barack Obama announced the United States would commence to withdraw those troops from Afghanistan, a decision consistent with SCO demands in this regard. It is also widely understood that after the admission of India and Pakistan, the next new full member of the SCO is most likely to be Iran. Not surprisingly, the US does not want Iran to become a full member of the SCO for a variety of reasons. Specifically in terms of energy, Americans fear that Russia and Iran will form a natural gas cartel that will be able to control the price of natural gas in the world. Key words: Shanghai Cooperation Organization, cooperation on energy, American interests, security in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, full member

러시아연방의 중앙아시아 정책 : 유라시아주의 관점을 중심으로

배엘레나 연세대학교 대학원 2016 국내석사

China's struggles along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) : project discontinuation and renegotiation in Central Asia

박영재 Graduate School, Korea University 2020 국내석사

With the launching of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, China has emphasized the message of infrastructure development, interconnection, and mutual gains. This grand plan has quickly captivated the interest of over 152 states and international organizations, and Central Asia has been in the thick of China’s endeavors from the start. Here, a lack of focus has been placed on the impacts the BRI has had on the region of Central Asia. Accordingly, this paper investigates the Central Asian cases of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to assess China’s progress along the BRI; both cases depict China’s struggles ranging from project discontinuation to vivid re-negotiation initiated by partner governments. These responses are puzzling as both states have been economically dependent on China long before the BRI’s inception, and from China’s perspective, Beijing’s advancement into these economies is neither something unseen nor something outwardly recognized as economically detrimental. The paper seeks to argue that the governments of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have been unwilling to push through with BRI projects that have drawn domestic backlash, and even as non-democratic states that are economically dependent on China, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have sought to challenge China to follow through on its original pledges of mutual gains along the BRI. Disenfranchised blue-collar workers, merchants, and youths angered by the lack of business and employment opportunities, proposed by the Chinese along the BRI, have taken to the streets berating the empty nature of China’s message of mutual gains. Sensing increasing challenges to legitimacy and regime survival, the Kazakh and Kyrgyz governments have been unwilling to bow down to Beijing, and these efforts in countering China’s exploits possess room to expose the inadequacies of the Chinese model of courting developing nations by offering aid with no strings attached and then securing their allegiances. Further, Central Asian pushback has the potential to demonstrate evident limitations of the BRI in delivering the Chinese proposal of mutual gains and reciprocity based upon China’s exploitative characteristics. Hence, the question surrounding China’s ability to offer a true alternative method of development and growth will likely further resonate throughout with mounting doubts and fear across the developing world.