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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Elrayah, Yassir E (검색결과 1 건)
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Elrayah, Yassir E Eastern Michigan University ProQuest Dissertations 2020 해외박사(DDOD)
Traffic crash prediction using different techniques and methodologies is essential for road safety. While many researchers have evaluated road safety using historical crash data, there are a few traffic crash prediction studies that predict the likelihood of crashes using emerging technology such as connected vehicles. This technology enables a connected vehicle to broadcast driving behaviors, in the form of basic safety messages, at a frequency of 10 Hz to a nearby connected vehicle. Additionally, different geospatial analysis techniques and prediction methodologies, such as machine learning, can support the analysis, visualization, and prediction of the traffic crash frequency. The primary objective of this study was to predict the likelihood of crash incidents using connected vehicles’ real-time driving behavior rather than historical crash data by developing and comparing different statistical and supervised machine learning predictive models. In addition, this study explored spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of crash incidents using geospatial analysis and unsupervised machine learning methodology. Moreover, it explored micro-level factors, such as road characteristics, and macro-level factors, such as population or points of interest density, which may impact traffic crash frequency. This study was based on a 3,000 connected-vehicle dataset, which was collected from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment Program in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The spatial analysis results using kernel density estimation showed that the city center and major road intersections were the most statistically significant high-risk locations. Additionally, the spatiotemporal analysis using emerging hotspot analysis showed that most of the city center roads had persistent hotspots, with some intensifying hotspots near road intersections and highway interchanges. Further, parametric and non-parametric correlation analysis and hierarchical regression models showed that some micro-level driving behavior variables and macro-level variables such as population, in relation to crash count, were statistically significant. Moreover, the results showed that the multinomial generalized mixed model with 91% prediction accuracy performed better than other statistical models. Finally, classification prediction, using supervised machine learning techniques, showed that both classification and regression tree and support vector machine algorithms, with multiple crash outcomes, performed well, with a high (94%) classification accuracy.
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